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This Week's Watchlist 10/25/10

publication date: Oct 23, 2010
On tap for this week we have three FDA decisions:

ARNA - Arena received an expected CRL on Saturday for its weightloss drug Lorcaserin.  (Subscribers to BioRunUp were immediately notified via SMS and email alerts) The CRL was as expected with no real surprises.  It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the FDA's requests on Monday morning. ARNA closed at $1.63 on Friday after surging nearly 22% at one point during the day.  These prices are much below its run-up high of $8 in late July.
BIOD - Biodel is up for an FDA decision on 10/30/10, and trader consensus is clearly leaning towards a CRL from the FDA.  Traders became even more jittery last week as the FDA delivered some heavy handed CRLs to AMLN/ALKS, on a drug that was widely expected to receive approval.  The market seemed to react as if saying 'If AMLN/ALKS was 'in the bag' and the FDA required more trials, there is NO way that the FDA will approve Linjeta with that botch India data.' Trading at under a 100M market cap, BIOD has incredible potential on approval.  However FDA uncertainty seems to have limited the run-up.
AVNR - Out of this week's watchlist stocks, AVNR seems to have the best odds of approval. Despite this, AVNR still took a hit from the AMLN/ALKS CRL. This was because that CRL was based largely because the FDA was concerned about prolongation of QT interval, a concern that was also expressed by the FDA in Avanir’s first CRL for AVP-923.  Will this continue to haunt AVNR?  We will soon find out.
VVUS - 10/28 is the PDUFA for VVUS which is widely expected to get a CRL.  Looking back now, VVUS had a much better Advisory Panel than ARNA.  Watch for share to gain some momentum while some traders may hope for a surprise FDA approval.
EXAS - Its catalyst time for one of our best picks of the year.  We recommended EXAS in the high $3 range and were thrilled to watch it climb to over $9.  Study results are going to be presented this Friday, 10/28 at the AACR conference.  To read about BioRunUp's gameplan for EXAS click HERE.
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