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$EXAS - BioRunUp Game Plan
publication date: Oct 18, 2010
author/source: Mark Messier
EXAS has been one of the best stocks of the year for BioRunUp subscribers, climbing from our recommendation in the high $3 range to todays high in the low $9 range. Those holding during this run-up have been rewarded. However, its catalyst date of 10/29/10 is rapidly approaching. Its decision time for RunUp traders. After much thought and planning I have decided what my gameplan will be going forward.
I have decided to start selling my shares in small blocks to protect my 140%+ gains. While many are planning on holding through approval, I plan to exit most- if not all of my position prior to the data release. I believe most trades are expecting great results, and that is already 'baked' into the share price.
Remember, EXAS has already gone from a company with a market cap of $154M to its current value of over $366M. While in no way do I doubt the eventual potential of their cancer screening test, it is years away from hitting the market. Most traders are not willing to wait years, especially once the 10/29/10 catalyst has past. Clinical trials and further testing is expensive, and as of Exact's 2Q earnings report revenues of EXAS are only $1.3M per quarter.
Remember too that EXAS filed a $150M shelf offering on 8/17/10 which they can exercise at any time. I would expect that EXAS would make some kind of offering after any positive press from the data release to fund future operations.
While I believe EXAS has the potential within years to become a $1B cap company, I do not plan to stick around to find out. When you have a mass amount of traders looking to cash in on the data release you end up with more sellers than buyers. When this happens- the price drops...